What percentage of sex offenders do you think reoffend?

[Da Po-po]

While doing some research for my Master's thesis, I'm curious what you folks think. What percentage of sex offenders re-offend with another sex offense? Please don't look it up before answering; I'd like to see everyone's educated guess. I'll give the actual number according to BJS later on.

[Irishluck31]

While doing some research for my Master's thesis, I'm curious what you folks think. What percentage of sex offenders re-offend with another sex offense? Please don't look it up before answering; I'd like to see everyone's educated guess. I'll give the actual number according to BJS later on.


I think that Criminal Sexual Conduct is typically like other crime. The criminal out grows the act or may become unable to committe the act, but with the creation of Viagra, this changes. Not a big fan of rehabilitation less chmical or physical castration.

Note: this was one of those situations where i attempted to sound smart. I may have failed. :D

[ElDiabloJoe]

One can change many things, one can change one's moral focus in life, one can change one's ethics, one can change one's beliefs, but one cannot change one's sexual desire. One does not go from desiring woman to desiring elephants.

YMMV,

EDJ

[findem]

From someone who has worked sex offenders, my experience indicates differant types of offenders. With the exclusion of what we called romantic or Romeos, who and in many cases because of culture, have sex with someone younger to the point its prohibited by our laws, the rest of the sex offenders are never "cured".

We worked closely with treatment providers and what I was told was that just as an alcohloc will always be a alcoholic, so will sex offenders always have to urge to sexually offend. Just as with alcholics, there is no cure, only surpression techniques to fight the urges.

I regard to juvenile offenders (those who offend juveniles) the majority of offenders are family members of close friends of the family. This makes sense because that affords the opportunity to offend. These cases are also grossly underreported, since many times a family will not send a relative to jail.

At one conferance, when asked how many sex offenders are actually registered, the treatment providers stated they estimated only about 5%. They also cited a recivitation rate of around 45%. The kicker is, thats only for those convicted a second or third time - not an actual representation of how many are really offending. We all know crooks learn in jail how to become better crooks. Sex offenders are no differant.

I can't commit on adult sex offenders, since I've never worked those (other than on patrol), but the problem with juveniles being sexually abused is way underreported.

Be careful when reviewing material in relation to sex offenders. Read it very carefully. Many studies are flawed or lean one way or another depending on who does the study and what their connection to the criminal justice system is.

I know the studies. I know what's not in the studies. If its a cure you"re looking for, there is only one. Use your imagination.


Forgive the spelling. I'm banging the keyboard and managing a scene at the same time.

[LongLegz]

I'll say...80%

[Mirrain]

Skin hounds are at a very high rate of re-offending, which is often why their information is hitting newspapers and television along with very strict standards.

That's not to say all do, but many do. NIJ (National Institute of justice) or other related stats might shed some light on the subject if you haven't looked already.

Here's a quick link that may prove useful from the a/m agency.

http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/nij/pubs-sum/163387.htm

[Da Po-po]

Skin hounds are at a very high rate of re-offending, which is often why their information is hitting newspapers and television along with very strict standards.

That's not to say all do, but many do. NIJ (National Institute of justice) or other related stats might shed some light on the subject if you haven't looked already.

Here's a quick link that may prove useful from the a/m agency.

http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/nij/pubs-sum/163387.htm


That's one I actually haven't read yet (I don't think, but my pile is getting quite large). Thanks for that one; it looks like it has a bunch of good information in it.

[Da Po-po]

OK, according to the UDSOJ Bureau of Justice Statistics, the percentage of sex offenders who commit another sex offense is 5.3% I was shocked to see that number and expected it to be much higher. I don't exactly know how that number was reached, but it appears to be pretty consistent with some other studies I've read. The results of this non-scientific pole are what I expected based on conversations I've had with others. I feel the "true" number is probably higher since sex offenses are notoriously under-reported.

[Mirrain]

I feel the "true" number is probably higher since sex offenses are notoriously under-reported.

Exactly. In random sex assaults the perpetrator is not always caught. I still think 5% is really lowsided but it raises the question on why that legal challenge hasn't been successful considering the limitations and restrictions imposed on the offenders.

Now I know it's because of the risk, but putting that aside, if based merely on fact, it could churn out a good debate. Frankly i'm glad those restrictions are in place, now we just need to invest more efforts into prevention.

[willowdared]

All of them

[deputy x 2]

absolutely - All Of Them

[Da Po-po]

Incidentally, the BJS also reports the percentage of general criminals who reoffend somewhere between 1-2%. Seems kind of low to me...

[Scott21]

Incidentally, the BJS also reports the percentage of general criminals who reoffend somewhere between 1-2%. Seems kind of low to me...


That's proably because that's how many get caught. It's not a fair statistic.

[Loren Pechtel]

OK, according to the UDSOJ Bureau of Justice Statistics, the percentage of sex offenders who commit another sex offense is 5.3% I was shocked to see that number and expected it to be much higher. I don't exactly know how that number was reached, but it appears to be pretty consistent with some other studies I've read. The results of this non-scientific pole are what I expected based on conversations I've had with others. I feel the "true" number is probably higher since sex offenses are notoriously under-reported.

I wonder what they define as a "sex offense".

Is it the guy arrested for indecent exposure because he did something very stupid while drunk?

Is it the streaker?

Is it the Romeo/Juliet scenario?

Is it the guy framed for sex abuse in a custody fight who ends up taking a plea bargain to stay out of jail?

[Da Po-po]

I wonder what they define as a "sex offense".

Is it the guy arrested for indecent exposure because he did something very stupid while drunk?

Is it the streaker?

Is it the Romeo/Juliet scenario?

Is it the guy framed for sex abuse in a custody fight who ends up taking a plea bargain to stay out of jail?

And there in lies part of the problem. All sex offenders are lumped into one pile while there is pretty clear evidence that certain types are far more likely to re-offend than others.